Weather-Disruption-Risk index across the forecast horizon (Sugra derived)
The conditions-based Weather-Disruption-Risk index computed hour by hour across the forecast horizon for any coordinate worldwide or any reporting airport, with the first crossing into high and into severe called out. Same seven factors, same published thresholds and same MAX-dominant combination as the nowcast; only the inputs move to their forecast equivalents. Every value is a FORECAST and carries uncertainty that grows with lead. This is NOT a delay probability.
Query parameters
Latitude, decimal degrees.
Latitude, decimal degrees.
Longitude, decimal degrees.
Longitude, decimal degrees.
ICAO or IATA airport code to score instead of a coordinate, e.g. EGLL or LHR.
ICAO or IATA airport code to score instead of a coordinate, e.g. EGLL or LHR.
Forecast horizon in hours, at hourly steps.
Forecast horizon in hours, at hourly steps.
Response
Successful Response
Example response
{
"data": {
"location": {
"requested": {
"lat": 51.47,
"lon": -0.46,
"airport": "EGLL",
"hours": 48
},
"resolved": {
"lat": 40.6394,
"lon": -73.7789,
"method": "airport_metar",
"airport": {
"code": "KJFK",
"name": "John F Kennedy International Airport",
"source": "noaa-awc-metar"
}
}
},
"issued_at": "2026-07-19T12:00:00Z",
"summary": {
"horizon_hours": 48,
"step_hours": 1,
"steps": 48,
"steps_scored": 48,
"peak": {
"lead_hours": 14,
"valid_time": "2026-07-20T02:00:00Z",
"index": 57.2,
"band": "high",
"dominant_driver": "wave"
},
"first_high_crossing": {
"lead_hours": 14,
"valid_time": "2026-07-20T02:00:00Z",
"index": 57.2,
"band": "high",
"dominant_driver": "wave"
},
"first_severe_crossing": {
"lead_hours": 14,
"valid_time": "2026-07-20T02:00:00Z",
"index": 57.2,
"band": "high",
"dominant_driver": "wave"
}
},
"series": [
{
"lead_hours": 6,
"valid_time": "2026-07-19T18:00:00Z",
"index": 61.3,
"band": "high",
"dominant_driver": "gust",
"components_count": 6,
"factors": {
"flight_category": {
"score": 95,
"category": "LIFR",
"derivation": "sugra-computed",
"station": "EGLL",
"base_category": "VFR",
"raised_by": {
"change": "TEMPO",
"from": "2026-07-19T15:30:00Z",
"to": "2026-07-19T17:00:00Z"
}
},
"wind": {
"score": 35,
"wind_speed_kt": 25
},
"gust": {
"score": 52,
"wind_gust_kt": 38,
"gust_spread_kt": 13
},
"precipitation": {
"score": 25,
"rate_mm_h": 2.5
},
"convection": {
"score": 60,
"cape_jkg": 2500,
"advisory": {
"advisory_type": "SIGMET_US",
"hazard": "CONVECTIVE",
"valid_from": "2026-07-19T14:00:00Z",
"valid_to": "2026-07-19T18:00:00Z"
}
},
"wave": {
"score": 55,
"wave_height_m": 2.5,
"wave_period_s": 7.4
},
"hazard_overlay": {
"score": 60,
"events": [
{
"event_type": "volcanic_ash",
"event_id": "washington-vaac-2026-393",
"place": "Santa Maria",
"severity": "Severe",
"influence_radius_km": 300,
"positioning": "forecast_polygon",
"forecast_valid_time": "2026-07-19T17:30:00Z",
"lead_confidence": 0.75,
"score": 60
}
],
"feeds_read": 3,
"feeds_total": 3
}
}
}
],
"attribution": {
"attribution": [
{
"registry_key": "sugra/disruption-risk",
"source_name": "Sugra (computed)",
"licence": "public-domain"
}
],
"effective_reexport": "allowed"
}
},
"meta": {
"endpoint": "/api/v1/fred/us/cpi",
"data_time": "2026-04-16T14:30:00Z",
"response_time": "2026-04-16T14:30:12Z",
"provider": "Sugra API v1.0.1",
"source": "sugra_crypto",
"attribution": "Short interest and Reg SHO daily short volume data is owned by and sourced from FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority).",
"fallback_chain": [
"sugra_crypto",
"sugra_finance"
]
}
}