---
title: "Incident-probability forecast"
method: GET
path: "/analytics/forecast"
tags: ["analytics"]
---

# Incident-probability forecast

`GET /analytics/forecast`

Empirical incident probability and expected delay for a road segment by day-of-week and hour, derived from historical aggregates. Omit dow/hour to get the full 7x24 grid. Thin segments degrade to corridor then jurisdiction basis; sample_size, confidence and basis report how much data backs each bucket. Requires Pro+ plan.
`expected_delay_min` and `p95_delay_min` count only unplanned event types (incident, closure, weather) — a three-week work zone is reported by `probability`, not as a three-week delay — and each contributing event is capped at 4320 minutes (72 hours). A value at 4320 therefore means "at least 72 hours", not exactly 72. Both fields are omitted when no duration could be established; the event still counts toward `probability` and `expected_count`.

## Query parameters

- `jurisdiction` string, required
- `road` string, required
- `road_class` string
- `dow` integer
- `hour` integer

## Response `200`

Segment forecast — a single bucket when dow+hour are pinned, otherwise the full grid in buckets[]

---

[API](https://skmtc.net/road511/apis/road511-traffic-api.md) · [All operations](https://skmtc.net/road511/apis/road511-traffic-api/llms.txt) · [OpenAPI document](https://skmtc-service-staging.skmtc.workers.dev/v1/apis/road511/road511-traffic-api/versions/39a088b9c155/schema)